I just love to pick on Hawaii, I guess because the Warriors are such an easy mark to spot as a grossly overrated team.
All season I have been saying that Washington (Hawaii's last opponent this season) has none of the stats but is a better team and will beat Hawaii on its home turf December 1 in pineapple land.
Heck, sometimes I forget Hawaii is part of the United States. Perhaps because, like Alaska, is not part of the contiguous United States.
A quick check of the 2003 Time Almanac says Hawaii "is a 1,523-mile chain of islets and eight main islands." I am abashed (disconcerted) to learn that Hawaii's population is 41% Asian, 24% white, only 9% Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders, and 26% other less-populated races.
Nonetheless, the Hawaii Warriors have given everyone something to cheer about. They are:
1) Unbeaten at 8-0 and rated No. 12 in the AP Top 25 Poll and No. 14 in the BCS Standings.
2) They are leading the Western Athletic Conference with a 5-0 record and are due for an amazing showdown when they host Boise State November 23. Boise State is 4-0 in the WAC standings, 7-1 on the season (their only loss is to Washington), ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll and No. 22 in the BCS Standings.
I secretly hope that Boise State routs Hawaii but do not tell the fans in Hawaii since this admission is just between you and me. Boise State is ranked No. 39 in the Sagarin Ratings and Hawaii is No. 41. Hawaii should be favored over Boise State since the Warriors are at home.
3) Hawaii averages more than 50 points a game and ranks No. 1 among 119 Division I-A schools in Scoring Offense.
4) I would think that playing in the WAC Conference Hawaii's defense would be soft yet the Warriors are only giving up 22 points a game and rank No. 41 among 119 teams in Scoring Defense.
All of this is pretty heady and impressive yet when I look at its strength of schedule I see Hawaii ranks 163rd in Sagarin's Ratings.
This means Hawaii's opponents have been collectively worse than all 119 Division I-A schools and worse than 44 Division 1-AA schools. There are 242 schools in Division 1-A and 1-AA.
I keep asking myself, "How can this team be the 12th best team in the country among 242 schools?" My answer is it cannot.
As 1 of only 5 undefeated teams left among 119 Division 1-A schools, I recognize that going 8-0 is no mean feat. If the other 114 teams in Division 1-A have not done it this season, you better believe it is not easy to do regardless of the competition.
Hawaii deserves a lot of credit for remaining undefeated so far.
Washington, on the hand, is a statistical nightmare getting worse each game. The Huskies have given their fans far less to cheer about. They are:
1) Suffering through a 6-game losing streak and taking on water faster than a sinking Titantic. A 2-6 record is not impressive on paper.
2) They are allowing 259 yards passing per game and rank 96th among 119 Division 1-A schools in Passing Defense. This can not be a good thing going up against Hawaii, which averages 459 yards per game passing, averages more than 4 TD passes a game, and ranks No. 2 in the country in Passing Offense.
Hawaii ranks No. 4 nationally in Passing Efficiency with a 162+ rating. Yikes.
I am basing my whole premise on the fact that Hawaii has thus far played a cupcake schedule of high school and JV opponents. If I am dead wrong, Washington is going to get beat by about 5 touchdowns because the Husky pass defenders could not stop their grandmother on their best day. They are terrible to say the least.
3) However bad the Husky pass defense is, they are better than the Husky rush defenders who give up 214 yards rushing per game and rank an even worse 111th in Rush Defense.
4) Washington's defense is allowing 474 total yards per game (probably a good second half for Hawaii's awesome offense) and ranks 109th nationally among 119 schools.
5) The Huskies give up 34 points a game and rank 101st in points allowed. They have lost 18 turnovers.
6) Washington's time of possession on offense ranks 116th nationally at 27:03 minutes per game.
7) For the first time in 6 weeks, Washington no longer has played the toughest schedule in the country. The Huskies are now ranked 2nd among 119 teams in Strength of Schedule. So who is No. 1? Fasten your seat belt, it is none other than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with their 1-7 record.
So what does Washington really have going for it? Well, not a hell of a lot at the moment, to tell you the truth.
There is redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker. In his last game against Arizona, he did set career records with 336 yards passing and 157 yards rushing. His 98-yard touchdown completion to Marcel Reece is the longest in Husky history. In 8 games Locker has rushed for 694 yards. Not too shabby.
Hawaii has Colt Brennan. The Warrior website shows Brennan's 7-game statistics at 225 completions in 328 attempts (68% completion rate) for 2,820 yards (402 yards per game), 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Awesome, Dude, totally awesome.
I have no idea how Locker, a freshman, will do against Brennan, a 6-foot-3, 201-pound wily senior from Irvine, California. Brennan's part-time job is probably as a gunslinger for an outlaw gang.
Could Washington be in over its head? Is the Pope Catholic? Does a bear (----) in the woods?
I will have to remind Washington's equipment manager to bring not only the helmets and shoulder pads but flak jackets as well. Those missiles could be frequent and disturbing on the island Colt has built.
Let's hope the Warriors are hospitable to their victims.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
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